Peter Hopcroft (Uni. Birmingham, UK)
Conditioning a climate model with paleoclimate reconstructions so that it resolves a tipping point
The ‘Greening’ of the Sahara during the Holocene is a particularly dramatic natural environmental change. Although it is well understood that the slow variations in Earth’s orbit caused this transition, climate models have largely failed to convincingly reproduce it. Having conditioned one climate model with the climatic state in North Africa for the mid-Holocene at 6000 years ago, we performed a series of transient simulations covering the last 10,000 years. The results show abrupt changes that replicate features seen in long paleoclimate records. We will discuss how this approach differs from other paleoclimate modelling studies, how the results are sensitive to a range of climatic forcings operating during this time. We’ll conclude with a brief discussion of how this may approach might be applied in other settings.
This is a TiPES webinar. Please contact Giulia Petitta for the Zoom link: giulia.petitta@amigoclimate.com
This is Scientific Course #2 (SC2) for the CriticalEarth ITN: An Expert Course on Climate Time Series Analysis and Risk Analysis, that will be run and organised by Manfred Mudelsee from Climate Risk Analysis (CRA).
The SC2 course will thus be conducted online from the 18-22nd April, although a the organiser will make it available to you two weeks before the workshop.
This online course takes the form of recorded videos with lectures/content (15 hours, 15 modules), and students will be working on exercises and applying techniques to their own research projects. There will be allocated slots over 3 days 20-23rd April where Manfred will hold both group discussions about the exercises, and 1-1 sessions with all ESRs (e.g. held over zoom) to provide specific problem solving.
ESRs are encouraged to give mini presentations (one to three slides) during these three days, providing an overview of the results they obtained from applying the software to the data from their PhD projects.
The course is available to external participants. Please contact Manfred directly for details.